Midir's Stock Market Challenge: Missed Day 1

Missed Trading Day

Due to issues at my afternoon job, I ended up missing the trading day.  I will not be able to trade until Tuesday! So I will be missing one more day at the very least.  It sucks because today was an amazing trading day!  I guess it would look amazing once you have the power of hindsight behind you!  It was pretty easy to lose a lot of money if you didn't know what you were doing!

Analysis For Today: ES

The ES made a huge move down on some impressive volume.  There was about twice as many trades today based on the width of my 2000 tick chart as there was any other day this week!  I ended up missing the trading day, but I attempted to mark all the trades (if they worked or not) that I could find.  The day sorta screamed trading range day to me, but it wasn't until later that you could have realized it was actually a channel down.  The first trade I could see was a break-out pull-back short  of the overnight low.  You wouldn't have got a runner but once the price broke lower, you could have easily scalped out 4 ticks with room to spare.

Then it really looked like chop to me.  I would probably be still thinking range day, and there were two second entries long that I could have took.  Both would have worked out, but only for the scalp.  There would have been no runner on either trade.  The second trade is the one I would have most likely took, as it was the easiest one to see.  Regardless, both would have worked.

As you can see, while I would have been able to scalp out 4 ticks, my runner would have been stopped out (and for good reason as price really moved against my long position).  At this point, I would like to think that I would have drawn the two trend lines, or at least considered the fact that we might still have a downward channel.  There was another second entry long off the then low of the day, and it would have worked out for a quick +4 ticks.  It was at point you get another test of the upper trend line, and it was pretty good bet we would be heading lower.

The second entry should would have been the trade of the day.  The odds would have really been in your favor.  You have a third test of upper portion of the downward channel (it should have been very easy to spot at this point), your making lower-highs, and your with the trend.  Nothing in trading is ever going to be 100%, but the odds were stacked in your favor! This trade could have easily netted a 8 tick runner, longer if you didn't sell on the pull back as your break even stop was never touched.  It just depends on how you manage your runners.  The next thing I see is more of a break-out pull-back short,  followed by a second entry short about half a hour later.

Final Thoughts

I would love to think that I would have taken all these trades and made a fortune, but I am not perfect.  I could have read everything wrong, and lost a fortune today.  When there is no pressure, no money on the line, anyone can do this stuff.  It's easy.  When there is money on the line, then it's like trying to trade drunk.